Applying an Integrated Foresight Framework to Urban Visual Management in Tehran


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 21 June 2026

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors

1 Iran University of Science and Technology

2 university of tehran

Abstract
Urban visual management in the Tehran metropolis faces complex structural challenges, overlapping institutional duties, stakeholder conflicts, and a dominance of reactive approaches, rendering traditional linear and project-oriented planning ineffective. Aiming to transition from this linear perspective to a systemic approach, this study seeks to elucidate the dynamics governing the future of Tehran's urban aesthetics and formulate robust strategies against uncertainties. To this end, an integrated framework based on the French School of strategic foresight was employed, combining structural analysis (MICMAC), stakeholder analysis (MACTOR), scenario planning (Scenario Wizard), and multi-criteria evaluation (MULTIPOL) utilizing an expert panel. Findings revealed that the system is highly unstable, with key drivers (e.g., sustainable funding and organizational reforms) being institutional rather than physical. Furthermore, power distribution is polycentric, and a hidden divergence among actors pushes the city toward a probable routine and stagnation scenario, whereas knowledge-based and standardization strategies demonstrated greater robustness in critical scenarios compared to mere physical interventions. Consequently, the resilience of the urban landscape requires a paradigm shift from a purely physical design focus to network governance, transforming the responsible organization from a direct executor into a regulator and facilitator. Urban policymakers and managers can utilize these findings to diversify financial models, structurally revise governing bodies, manage conflicts of interest, and develop mandatory design codes.

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